Hundreds of inmates across England and Wales are expected to walk free from prison on Thursday under an expanded early release programme, amid concerns that many could be left homeless and the probation system may struggle to supervise them.
About 2,000 offenders, including domestic abusers and violent criminals, are scheduled for release over the next month, while another 3,000 will be freed in phases over the following year to ease prison overcrowding. The initial target of 6,000 was reduced following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s intervention.
However, probation officers have warned that accommodation shortages could force some former inmates onto the streets, despite evidence that securing housing after prison helps reduce reoffending.
A probation source told The Guardian, “We have a handful of places for ex-offenders, and they are full. We are now looking at releasing some people straight on to the street.”
Enver Solomon, chief executive of charity Nacro, warned that homelessness after incarceration could increase the likelihood of offenders returning to prison.
Meanwhile, probation officers’ union Napo accused prison authorities of ignoring the challenges facing the service, including staff shortages, excessive workloads and problems with electronic monitoring.
Its national chair, Ben Cockburn, described the situation as absolute denial.
The expanded scheme, introduced under the 2026 Sentencing Act, allows eligible prisoners serving fixed-term sentences to qualify for release after serving one-third instead of 40%.
However, certain offenders, including those convicted in child grooming gang cases, indecent assault, and manslaughter, are excluded.
The Ministry of Justice also announced plans to expand electronic tagging, but a recent watchdog report revealed that some offenders waited up to five months for monitoring devices, with only 55% of GPS and radio frequency tags installed on schedule.
